As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares for the upcoming October 27 election, his primary challenge stems not from his political opposition, but from a fractured base of his own supporters. A proliferation of small, pro-Netanyahu factions is currently competing for the same voters, threatening to dilute his coalition’s strength and jeopardize his path to another term.
The election serves as a critical referendum on Netanyahu’s nearly 17-year tenure, a period defined by significant public protests, the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, and nearly three years of ongoing conflict. For the veteran leader, a victory would represent a major political comeback, while a defeat could signal the end of a career that has dominated Israeli politics for three decades.
Under Israel’s electoral system, voters cast ballots for parties rather than individual candidates. Parties must secure at least 3.25% of the total vote to enter the 120-member parliament. Because no single party typically secures a majority, leaders must form coalitions to reach the 61-seat threshold. Netanyahu currently relies on a bloc of religious and ultranationalist parties, but internal divisions are complicating his strategy.
Tensions between key allies, such as Cabinet ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have prevented their respective parties—Jewish Power and Religious Zionism—from merging as they did in 2022. Additionally, other smaller lists led by former Likud members and retired military figures are vying for the same ideological demographic. If these parties fail to cross the 3.25% threshold, their votes will be discarded, potentially handing an advantage to Netanyahu’s rivals.
Netanyahu has been vocal about the risks of this fragmentation, frequently warning his allies that their lack of unity could lead to disaster. In an interview with Channel 14, he emphasized the necessity of consolidation, stating, “When we unite, we win. When we split up, we lose.” He further cautioned that a victory for his opponents, whom he characterizes as “the left,” would be detrimental to the nation, insisting that only he can effectively counter Hamas and block the creation of a Palestinian state.
The prime minister’s coalition is already facing significant headwinds, with opinion polls reflecting widespread public dissatisfaction following the deadliest attacks in Israel’s history and the subsequent, inconclusive wars in Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon. Historical data supports his concerns; in 2021, the failure of small right-wing parties to meet the electoral threshold contributed to his temporary removal from power, whereas his 2022 return was aided by the disarray among his opponents.
With the September 8 deadline approaching for parties to finalize their electoral status, withdraw, or consolidate, Netanyahu is intensifying his pressure. While one minor party recently agreed to merge into Smotrich’s list, the broader landscape remains precarious. Netanyahu continues to frame the election in existential terms, telling supporters, “The left is ready. If we don’t unite, we will lose.” The report also notes that the election is largely a referendum on Netanyahu’s nearly uninterrupted 17-year rule and his handling of a turbulent period marked by mass protests, Hamas’ Oct. The report also notes that with his legacy on the line, Netanyahu is imploring his erstwhile allies to unite into larger parties that have a better chance of entering parliament. The report also notes that here’s a closer look at Netanyahu’s situation. The report also notes that but any party that can muster just 3.25% of the vote wins representation. The report also notes that no single party has ever captured the parliamentary majority needed to form a government.
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