Ryanair has issued a stark warning that European air fares are likely to rise significantly next year if oil prices remain elevated. The airline cautioned that the current market environment could threaten the survival of less financially prepared competitors, potentially leading to industry consolidation.
To protect its bottom line during the unprofitable winter off-season, the Irish carrier has reduced its passenger target for the fiscal year ending March 31, lowering the projection from 216 million to 214 million customers. This strategic adjustment is designed to limit exposure to “unhedged winter oil,” particularly as jet fuel prices have reached $140 per barrel. The company anticipates that these schedule reductions will mitigate winter losses by between €70 million and €100 million.
Global energy markets have been rattled by renewed tensions between the US and Iran, which pushed Brent crude to $97.04 a barrel on Wednesday—the highest level since late July—before it settled slightly below $95. Despite these pressures, Ryanair remains on track for a profitable year, supported by a hedge on 80% of its jet fuel at $67 per barrel, though earnings are expected to fall short of last year’s record highs.
While winter capacity is expected to remain flat, the airline continues to see growth in its summer schedule, projecting a 5% increase in passenger numbers to 145 million for the period between April and October. Meanwhile, ticket prices between August and September are trending “modestly down” compared to last year. In contrast, rival carrier Wizz Air reported a 25.9% surge in passenger numbers last month, fueled by an expansion in flight capacity.
Separately, the airline recently addressed safety concerns following a mid-flight incident involving a passenger, 61-year-old Ljubisa Karović. During a flight from Thessaloniki to Memmingen, engine failure caused debris to shatter an acrylic window, partially pulling Karović from the aircraft. His wife, Svetlana Grković, and two other passengers successfully pulled him back to safety, prompting the airline to reassure travelers regarding the integrity of its fleet. The report also notes that the company said: “If high oil prices continue through to summer 2027, Ryanair believes short-haul air fares in Europe will increase materially to reflect higher oil prices, as some less well-hedged competitors will stru. The report also notes that it later eased back to just below $95. The report also notes that ryanair expects the cut to its winter schedule to reduce its winter losses by €70m (£60m) to €100m.
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